How Do We Get It Right?
Good analysis depends on disciplined thinking as much as technical skill. Analysts must know themselves, know their tradecraft, and know the environment they are evaluating.
Use the Graphic as a Pause Point
Before finalizing a conclusion, ask whether you have protected a preferred explanation, ignored contradictory evidence, personalized disagreement, or confused confidence with certainty. Record what would change your assessment and what remains unknown.
The Three Knowledge Obligations
| Obligation | Practical meaning |
|---|---|
| Know yourself | Recognize bias, emotion, incentives, assumptions, and attachment to an outcome. |
| Know the tradecraft | Use structured methods, preserve evidence, test alternatives, document uncertainty, and make reasoning repeatable. |
| Know the environment | Understand the systems, users, normal behavior, telemetry, blind spots, time context, and operational constraints. |
A Repeatable Self-Check
- State the current judgment in one sentence.
- Separate observed facts from interpretation.
- Identify at least one plausible alternative explanation.
- Name the evidence that supports and weakens each explanation.
- Ask what information is missing and whether the collection path could have observed it.
- Revise the judgment, confidence, and next action when the evidence changes.
Source Note
This page adapts analyst-mindset principles associated with Richards J. Heuer Jr.’s Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and the Central Intelligence Agency’s A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis. The wording and Kalos artwork are instructional adaptations, not verbatim quotations.
- Heuer, R. J., Jr. (1999). Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency.
- Central Intelligence Agency. (2009). A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis.